On being an expert

One of the fall outs of the recent financial downturn has been a rejection of expertise - "If those guys sitting in their towers were such experts, how did they not know this was coming?". The New York Times spoke to the subject of expertise in a recent op-ed piece:

"The best example of the awe that an “expert” inspires is the “Dr. Fox effect.” It’s named for a pioneering series of psychology experiments in which an actor was paid to give a meaningless presentation to professional educators.

The actor was introduced as “Dr. Myron L. Fox” (no such real person existed) and was described as an eminent authority on the application of mathematics to human behavior. He then delivered a lecture on “mathematical game theory as applied to physician education” — except that by design it had no point and was completely devoid of substance. However, it was warmly delivered and full of jokes and interesting neologisms.

Afterward, those in attendance were given questionnaires and asked to rate “Dr. Fox.” They were mostly impressed. “Excellent presentation, enjoyed listening,” wrote one. Another protested: “Too intellectual a presentation.”"

Almost reminds me of some of the conferences I have attended...

The Times article then goes on to discuss some research which has been done on experts. Unsurprisingly, the relationship between fame and accurate projections is inverse:

"The more famous experts did worse than unknown ones. That had to do with a fault in the media. Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted."

Another reason why more famous experts could do worse than unknown ones is the fact that the famous experts dedicate their time to maintaining stardom, while the lesser known experts spend their time perfecting their expertise.

I have noticed a similar pattern in many businesses as well, where the "loudest" business is seen as the industry leader, even though their product or service may not in fact be the best. Be cautious of any product or firm which attempts to sell it self purely on its stardom, rather than its substance.